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BACKGROUND
The prognostic value of the change in heart rate from the supine to upright position (∆HR) in patients with chronic heart failure (HF) is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS
∆HR was measured in patients enrolled in the Trial of Intensified Medical Therapy in Elderly Patients with Congestive Heart Failure (TIME-CHF) who were in sinus rhythm and had no pacemaker throughout the trial (n=321). The impact of ∆HR on 18-month outcome (HF hospitalization-free survival) was assessed. In addition, the prognostic effect of changes in ∆HR between baseline and month 6 on outcomes in the following 12 months was determined. A lower ∆HR was associated with a higher risk of death or HF hospitalization (hazard ratio 1.79 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} 1.19-2.75] if ∆HR ≤3 beats/min [bpm], P=0.004). In the multivariate analysis, lower ∆HR remained an independent predictor of death or HF hospitalization (hazard ratio 1.75 [95% CI, 1.18-2.61] if ∆HR ≤3 bpm, P=0.004) along with ischemic HF etiology, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, presence and extent of rales, and no baseline β-blocker use. In patients without event during the first 6 months, the change in ∆HR from baseline to month 6 predicted death or HF hospitalization during the following 12 months (hazard ratio=2.13 [95% CI 1.12-5.00] if rise in ∆HR <2 bpm; P=0.027).

CONCLUSIONS
∆HR as a simple bedside test is an independent prognostic predictor in patients with chronic HF. ∆HR is modifiable, and changes in ∆HR also provide prognostic information, which raises the possibility that ∆HR may help to guide treatment.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION
URL: www.isrctn.org. Unique identifier: ISRCTN43596477.